Smarter maritime decisions start with better questions

Written by Jonathan Strachan, Chief Technical Officer

In the maritime world, experience has always counted for a lot. For decades, ship design, operational planning, and even investment decisions, have been guided by what has worked before – intuition, honed by time at sea or success on previous builds. But in today’s fast-moving, decarbonisation-driven operating environment, relying on gut feel alone is no longer enough. 

At Houlder, we call this “dead reckoning” decision-making: using past success as a compass for future choices. It’s a familiar approach, but an increasingly risky one. With regulations tightening, margins under pressure, and capital decisions under more scrutiny than ever, the shipping industry must shift toward a more evidence-based approach. That means bringing together marine engineering and data science to ask better questions earlier – and use robust modelling to arrive at smarter answers. 

Why intuition is no longer enough 

Many of today’s challenges, from selecting energy-saving devices to retrofitting vessels or designing new ones, are simply too complex to solve with experience alone. Regulatory penalties for misjudgement are growing, particularly under frameworks like CII, EEXI, EU ETS, FuelEU Maritime and the forthcoming IMO Mid Term measures outlined in MEPC 83). Commercial consequences can be just as severe, especially if a ship’s rating slips or an investment fails to perform. 

In this context, relying on what feels right can lock in inefficiencies. We’ve seen cases where shipowners have requested vessel specifications simply because a similar ship “did well” in the past. But small differences in routes, speed, draught, or weather exposure, for example, can radically alter how a vessel performs. 

Houlder’s work with a client on two sister vessels is a case in point. One retrofit project had shown strong efficiency gains. Naturally, the client wanted to replicate it on the second vessel. But our analysis, drawing on AIS data and tailored modelling, showed that the second ship operated at lower speeds and draughts. The retrofit would still deliver gains – but they’d be smaller, and the payback period longer. Without that insight, the investment may have underperformed expectations. 

Evidence builds confidence 

This approach isn’t just about caution, it’s about confidence. When shipowners have access to real-world data, they’re empowered to make decisions they can stand behind. Whether it’s evaluating a technology investment, planning operational changes, or preparing for compliance milestones, evidence gives decision-makers the clarity they need. 

Take our recent work on wind-assisted propulsion systems (WAPS). These technologies are gaining traction, for good reason, but their effectiveness is highly dependent on vessel type, route, and integration. We recently supported a client through a full WAPS validation, from designing bespoke sea trials to logging real-time data and refining performance models. The result was a data-backed report that allowed the client to move forward with confidence – not just with the technology, but with how best to operate it.

In another case, Houlder was brought in to assess the impact of slow steaming. While reducing speed can cut emissions, it can also trigger knock-on effects: from underperforming engines to inefficiencies in propulsion systems. For one vessel operating under EEXI constraints, our analysis found that fixed shaft generator settings were preventing the propeller from operating at optimal pitch. Switching to a genset allowed the RPM to be optimised, delivering greater efficiency – a solution that would have remained hidden without a data-led review. 

Turning insight into impact 

What underpins all of this work is Houlder’s HOME™ modelling environment – a learning system developed by our naval architects and engineers to combine vessel data, operational profiles and decades of project experience into a modular platform for optimisation. Whether it’s weather, hull form, loading, or energy-saving devices, HOME™ lets us model vessel behaviour under real-world conditions and tailor recommendations to specific client goals. 

That flexibility is critical. Every vessel is different. Every operational profile is unique. What works for one ship may not work for another. By combining structured modelling with deep domain knowledge, we help shipowners identify where the risks lie, and where the opportunities are. 

It’s also an evolving system. As we work on more projects, HOME™ becomes more powerful, integrating lessons learned into future models and improving the speed and accuracy of our consultancy. 

From guesswork to foresight 

Ultimately, this is about helping the industry move from reactive to proactive – from relying on what’s been done before to building strategies around what the data tells us now. Experience still matters. So does instinct. But when investments, and sustainability goals are on the line, they need to be backed by evidence. 

At Houlder, we don’t just help shipowners make decisions, we help them ask the right questions first. Because in today’s maritime landscape, that’s where smarter, safer, and more sustainable outcomes begin. 

Learn more about how Houlder’s optimisation and modelling service, HOME™, can support your next project